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Battle of the Ballot: Will Narendra Modi make an impact at the national level?

By <br> Published: 01:33 GMT, 3 April 2013 | Updated: 01:33 GMT, 3 April 2013 <br> </a> <br>With her government denying permission to Narendra Modi's programme in Kolkata, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has made it clear as to which side of the 'Modi divide' she is on.<br><br> The reception for Modi was scheduled for April 9 at the state-run Netaji Indoor Stadium in Kolkata but at the eleventh hour government officials denied permission for the event.<br><br> "We wanted to book the stadium to give a civic reception to Narendra Modi on April 9 but we were told that booking was not available on that date," state BJP spokesperson Ritesh Tiwari told Mail Today on Tuesday.


<br /><br> The BJP is faced with a crucial question at the national level: What will be the impact of the Modi factor?<br> <br>The BJP's state unit has shifted the venue to the Mahajati Sadan in Central Kolkata which has a much smaller capacity of 1300 as opposed to the indoor stadium that could have accommodated 15,000 people.


<br /><br><br>The West Bengal BJP might have found a way out by shifting to a smaller venue, but the BJP is faced with a more crucial question at the national level: What will be the impact of the Modi factor at the national level?
<br /><br><br>In West Bengal, the calculation is simple. Muslims account for over 25 per cent of the electorate in the state and an overwhelming majority of them voted for the Trinamool Congress in the 2011 assembly elections.

<br /><br> <br>By refusing permission to Modi's rally, Banerjee is imitating the insult that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar handed out to Modi when he returned the aid provided by Gujarat during the Kosi floods.<br><br> It's a low-risk game for Banerjee.


If one were to believe the recent market survey by market research agency Ipsos, Kolkata is one of the few big cities which had a negative sentiment towards Modi with 78 per cent of those surveyed disapproving of the leader.<br> <br>But the leader Banerjee is taking a cue from is in a far more precarious position. Nitish has already made it clear that he will pull out of the NDA the day Modi is declared as its prime ministerial candidate.


While Nitish might be able to preserve his throne in Patna as the JD(U) enjoys a majority in the state assembly even without the BJP, his prospects at the hustings might not be that rosy. <br /><br> <br>Muslims account for 16.5 per cent of the electorate in Bihar.


Even if Kumar wins the lion's share of the Muslim vote - as he is bound to if he parts ways with the BJP by sticking his neck out on Modi - the community won't vote for him en masse. The Lalu Prasad's RJD and the Congress will hold on to their votes in some Muslim pockets.


On the other hand, the upper castes, who account for over 20 per cent of the votes in Bihar will throw their weight almost completely behind the BJP.<br><br> The mother of all battles for Modi, however, will be in UP. The buzz is that Modi might even contest from one of the seats in the state.


Muslims account for 18.5 per cent of the population in UP and are one of the most influential vote banks in the state. <br /><br><br>If Modi does enter the electoral arena in UP, there is bound to be a polarisation of votes with Muslims consolidating around the SP and upper caste Hindus and some OBCs rallying behind the BJP.

<br /><br><br>However, a complete consolidation of Hindus behind the BJP as was seen during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation is unlikely. The reason is that the SP and BSP are no pushovers. Their support among the OBCs and Dalits respectively is well entrenched and it will be difficult for the BJP to breach this even if Modi plays the OBC card.


<br /><br><br>One state where the BJP might even be able to win some support among Muslims is Rajasthan. Muslims form 8.5 per cent of the electorate in the state and play a decisive role in at least three Lok Sabha seats: Bharatpur, Alwar and Jaipur.
But the community is upset with the ruling Congress especially after the killing of Muslims by the police in Bharatpur in 2011. <br /><br><br>Modi realises the threat a possible Muslim consolidation poses and it is for this reason that he has spoken against vote-bank politics on a number of occasions.


<br /><br><br>"The whole nation has been destroyed by vote bank politics, what it needs is development. The solution to all problems is development. If there is development there is much scope for a lot of improvement in the nation," Modi had said during his speech at the Shri Ram College of Commerce.<br><br> But notwithstanding such statements, his main USP as the BJP's PM candidate is based on votebank politics of a different kind: a Hindu polarisation. <br><br> <br> By refusing permission to Modi's rally, Banerjee is imitating the insult that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar handed out to Modi when he returned the aid provided by Gujarat during the Kosi floods.


It's a low-risk game for Banerjee. If one were to believe the recent market survey by market research agency Ipsos, Kolkata is one of the few big cities which had a negative sentiment towards Modi with 78 per cent of those surveyed disapproving of the leaderBUT the leader Banerjee is taking a cue from is in a far more precarious position. Nitish has already made it clear that he will pull out of the NDA the day Modi is declared as its prime ministerial candidate.


While Nitish might be able to preserve his throne in Patna as the JD(U) enjoys a majority in the state assembly even without the BJP, his prospects at the hustings might not be that rosy. Muslims account for 16.5 per cent of the electorate in Bihar. Even if Kumar wins the lion's share of the Muslim vote - as he is bound to if he parts ways with the BJP by sticking his neck out on Modi - the community won't vote for him en masse.


The Lalu Prasad's RJD and the Congress will hold on to their votes in some Muslim pockets. On the other hand, the upper castes, who account for over 20 per cent of the votes in Bihar will throw their weight almost completely behind the BJP. The mother of all battles for Modi, however, will be in UP.

The buzz is that Modi might even contest from one of the seats in the state. Muslims account for 18.5 per cent of the population in UP and are one of the most influential vote banks in the state. If Modi does enter the electoral arena in UP, there is bound to be a polarisation of votes with Muslims consolidating around the SP and upper caste Hindus and some OBCs rallying behind the BJP.


However, a complete consolidation of Hindus behind the BJP as was seen during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation is unlikely. The reason is that the SP and BSP are no pushovers. Their support among the OBCs and Dalits respectively is well entrenched and it will be difficult for the BJP to breach this even if Modi plays the OBC card.


One state where the BJP might even be able to win some support among Muslims is Rajasthan. Muslims form 8.5 per cent of the electorate in the state and play a decisive role in at least three Lok Sabha seats: Bharatpur, Alwar and Jaipur. But the community is upset with the ruling Congress especially after the killing of Muslims by the police in Bharatpur in 2011.


Modi realises the threat a possible Muslim consolidation poses and it is for this reason that he has spoken against vote-bank politics on a number of occasions. "The whole nation has been destroyed by vote bank politics, what it needs is development. The solution to all problems is development. If there is development there is much scope for a lot of improvement in the nation," Modi had said during his speech at the Shri Ram College of Commerce.


But notwithstanding such statements, his main USP as the BJP's PM candidate is based on votebank politics of a different kind: a Hindu polarisation.BUT the leader Banerjee is taking a cue from is in a far more precarious position. Nitish has already made it clear that he will pull out of the NDA the day Modi is declared as its prime ministerial candidate.

While Nitish might be able to preserve his throne in Patna as the JD(U) enjoys a majority in the state assembly even without the BJP, his prospects at the hustings might not be that rosy. Muslims account for 16.5 per cent of the electorate in Bihar. Even if Kumar wins the lion's share of the Muslim vote - as he is bound to if he parts ways with the BJP by sticking his neck out on Modi - the community won't vote for him en masse.


The Lalu Prasad's RJD and the Congress will hold on to their votes in some Muslim pockets. On the other hand, the upper castes, who account for over 20 per cent of the votes in Bihar will throw their weight almost completely behind the BJP. The mother of all battles for Modi, however, will be in UP.

The buzz is that Modi might even contest from one of the seats in the state. Muslims account for 18.5 per cent of the population in UP and are one of the most influential vote banks in the state. If Modi does enter the electoral arena in UP, there is bound to be a polarisation of votes with Muslims consolidating around the SP and upper caste Hindus and some OBCs rallying behind the BJP.


However, a complete consolidation of Hindus behind the BJP as was seen during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation is unlikely. The reason is that the SP and BSP are no pushovers. Their support among the OBCs and Dalits respectively is well entrenched and it will be difficult for the BJP to breach this even if Modi plays the OBC card.

One state where the BJP might even be able to win some support among Muslims is Rajasthan. Muslims form 8.5 per cent of the electorate in the state and play a decisive role in at least three Lok Sabha seats: Bharatpur, Alwar and Jaipur. But the community is upset with the ruling Congress especially after the killing of Muslims by the police in Bharatpur in 2011.


Modi realises the threat a possible Muslim consolidation poses and it is for this reason that he has spoken against vote-bank politics on a number of occasions. "The whole nation has been destroyed by vote bank politics, what it needs is development. The solution to all problems is development. If there is development there is much scope for a lot of improvement in the nation," Modi had said during his speech at the Shri Ram College of Commerce.


But notwithstanding such statements, his main USP as the BJP's PM candidate is based on votebank politics of a different kind: a Hindu polarisation.


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- вы всегЎа ЌПжете ПбратОться в сервОс Ўля тПгП, чтПбы вПспПльзПваться услугаЌО, связаММыЌО с техМОческПй пПЎЎержкПй, ЌПМтажПЌ, а также сервОсМыЌ ПбслужОваМОеЌ. КрПЌе тПгП, пПстПяММП веЎутся рабПты пП ПбучеМОю персПМала кПрректМПй эксплуатацОО ПбПруЎПваМОя Ўля кПфе;
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Вы ЌПжете быть увереМы в тПЌ, чтП пПкупаете ЎействОтельМП качествеММую, ПрОгОМальМую прПЎукцОю, кПтПрая ЎПставОт ваЌ уЎПвПльствОе О прПстОЌулОрует кПлОчествП прПЎаж. В разЎеле также ЌПжМП прОПбрестО О артезОаМскую вПЎу Оз чОстых ОстПчМОкПв. ОМа утПлОт жажЎу О пПЌПжет в прОгПтПвлеМОО рПскПшМых блюЎ Ўля всей сеЌьО.

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